diff --git a/examples/openspending/content/stories/moers-anomaly-2016.mdx b/examples/openspending/content/stories/moers-anomaly-2016.mdx new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9ad9e5e0 --- /dev/null +++ b/examples/openspending/content/stories/moers-anomaly-2016.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,284 @@ +--- +title: An Exploration of Moers' 2016 Budget Anomaly +date: 06/13/2023 +--- + +_Note: The currency in this post has been converted to USD using an average exchange rate of 1 EUR = 1.20 USD. +Additionally, the text values for account groups have been loosely translated to English. You can find the +original dataset here: [Moers budget dataset](https://www.openspending.org/@os-data/moers-all)_ + +In the fiscal landscape of Moers, Germany, 2016 stands out as an anomaly. An examination of the budget allocations +for this particular year shows a significant surge in spending across various areas. After this anomalous +spike, spending patterns then seemed to resume their previous trajectory of a slow, steady climb in the +following years. While it's tempting to dismiss this as an irregularity, it's worth exploring the potential +underlying causes of this fiscal fluctuation. + + + +## Why? + +One possible explanation could be the global refugee crisis that was unfolding around this time, particularly +in Germany. While we can't assert this connection definitively due to the lack of specific data, it's an angle +worth examining to better understand the budget anomaly of 2016. + +For instance, the "Donations and General Levies" account group saw a distinct increase in 2016. This could be +reflective of Moers' attempts to provide immediate support to incoming refugees, although we can only speculate +at this point. + + + +Similarly, "Expenses for Material and Services" also experienced an upswing. This could suggest +that the town was working to establish necessary infrastructure and resources for the newcomers. It's plausible +that procurement of essential supplies and services to aid the refugees was a factor contributing to this budget +increase. + +The rise in "Personnel Expenses" may suggest an expansion of the town's workforce during this period. Additional +staffing in areas like interpretation, social work, healthcare, and administration would be necessary to handle +the influx of refugees. + +The two account groups that experienced the most substantial raw monetary increases were "Taxes and Similar Charges" +and "Transfer Expenses". Both these categories more than doubled in size during the year, a significant surge +especially considering their already high baseline spending. This could be for a variety of reasons. + +For "Taxes and Similar Charges", the hike could indicate the town adjusting local taxation to meet the additional +expenditures, or it could reflect an increase in income from other sources falling under this group. The influx +of refugees and the resulting uptick in economic activity may have also led to a rise in the collection of certain +local taxes or fees. + +Concurrently, the "Transfer Expenses" spike could be an indication of heightened social welfare payments, costs +associated with refugee integration, and funds transferred to other entities managing the crisis. These financial +escalations are a testament to the extensive and multifaceted financial impact the refugee crisis had on the town's +budget. + + + +By 2017, these budget items returned to their pre-2016 levels, which may suggest that the town had successfully +adapted to the new circumstances, perhaps by implementing more cost-effective strategies. + +While this exploration offers a compelling perspective, it's important to note that these are theories derived +from the available budget data and the concurrent global events of the time. It underscores how global crises, +like the refugee crisis, may potentially impact not just national budgets, but also the fiscal management of +smaller towns like Moers.