---
title: An Exploration of Moers' 2016 Budget Anomaly
date: 06/13/2023
---

_Note: The currency in this post has been converted to USD using an average exchange rate of 1 EUR = 1.20 USD.
Additionally, the text values for account groups have been loosely translated to English. You can find the
original dataset here: [Moers budget dataset](https://www.openspending.org/@os-data/moers-all)_

In the fiscal landscape of Moers, Germany, 2016 stands out as an anomaly. An examination of the budget allocations
for this particular year shows a significant surge in spending across various areas. After this anomalous
spike, spending patterns then seemed to resume their previous trajectory of a slow, steady climb in the
following years. While it's tempting to dismiss this as an irregularity, it's worth exploring the potential
underlying causes of this fiscal fluctuation.

<VegaLite
  spec={{
    $schema: 'https://vega.github.io/schema/vega-lite/v5.json',
    title: 'Spending by Account Group',
    description: 'Spending by Account Group',
    data: {
      url: 'https://storage.openspending.org/moers-all/moers-sums.csv',
    },
    transform: [
      {
        calculate: "format(datum.amount / 1e6 * 1.20, '$,.1f') + 'M'",
        as: 'formattedAmountMillion',
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          format: '~s',
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        },
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      color: {
        field: 'account group',
        type: 'nominal',
        title: 'Account Group',
        scale: {
          domain: [
            'Activated Own Work',
            'Balance Expenses',
            'Care Expenses',
            'Donations And General Levies',
            'Expenses For Material And Services',
            'Extraordinary Expenses',
            'Extraordinary Income',
            'Other Ordinary Expenses',
            'Other Ordinary Income',
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            'Personnel Expenses',
            'Private Law Performance Fees',
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            '#64B5F6',
            '#4FC3F7',
            '#4DD0E1',
            '#4DB6AC',
            '#81C784',
            '#AED581',
            '#DCE775',
            '#FFF176',
            '#FFD54F',
            '#FFB74D',
          ],
        },
      },
      tooltip: [
        { field: 'account group', type: 'nominal', title: 'Account Group' },
        {
          field: 'formattedAmountMillion',
          type: 'ordinal',
          title: 'Spending (USD)',
        },
        { field: 'date', type: 'temporal', title: 'Year', format: '%Y' }
      ],
    },
  }}
/>

## Why?

One possible explanation could be the global refugee crisis that was unfolding around this time, particularly
in Germany. While we can't assert this connection definitively due to the lack of specific data, it's an angle
worth examining to better understand the budget anomaly of 2016.

For instance, the "Donations and General Levies" account group saw a distinct increase in 2016. This could be
reflective of Moers' attempts to provide immediate support to incoming refugees, although we can only speculate
at this point.

<VegaLite
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    title: 'Donations and General Levies',
    description: 'Donations and General Levies',
    data: {
      url: 'https://storage.openspending.org/moers-all/moers-sums.csv',
    },
    transform: [
      { filter: "datum['account group']==='Donations And General Levies'" },
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      },
      color: {
        title: 'Account Group',
        field: 'account group',
        scale: {
          domain: ['Donations And General Levies'],
          range: ['#9575CD'],
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        { field: 'account group', type: 'nominal', title: 'Area' },
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      ],
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/>

Similarly, "Expenses for Material and Services" also experienced an upswing. This could suggest
that the town was working to establish necessary infrastructure and resources for the newcomers. It's plausible
that procurement of essential supplies and services to aid the refugees was a factor contributing to this budget
increase.

The rise in "Personnel Expenses" may suggest an expansion of the town's workforce during this period. Additional
staffing in areas like interpretation, social work, healthcare, and administration would be necessary to handle
the influx of refugees.

The two account groups that experienced the most substantial raw monetary increases were "Taxes and Similar Charges"
and "Transfer Expenses". Both these categories more than doubled in size during the year, a significant surge
especially considering their already high baseline spending. This could be for a variety of reasons.

For "Taxes and Similar Charges", the hike could indicate the town adjusting local taxation to meet the additional
expenditures, or it could reflect an increase in income from other sources falling under this group. The influx
of refugees and the resulting uptick in economic activity may have also led to a rise in the collection of certain
local taxes or fees.

Concurrently, the "Transfer Expenses" spike could be an indication of heightened social welfare payments, costs
associated with refugee integration, and funds transferred to other entities managing the crisis. These financial
escalations are a testament to the extensive and multifaceted financial impact the refugee crisis had on the town's
budget.

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    title: 'Largest Spending by Account Group',
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    data: {
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        title: 'Year'
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        field: 'amount',
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        title: 'Spending (USD in millions)',
        axis: {
          format: '~s',
          labelExpr: "format(datum.value / 1e6 * 1.20, '$,.0f') + 'M'",
        }
      },
      color: {
        field: 'account group',
        type: 'nominal',
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            'Expenses For Material And Services',
            'Personnel Expenses',
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            '#9575CD',
            '#7986CB',
            '#AED581',
            '#FFD54F',
            '#FFB74D'
          ],
        },
      },
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        { field: 'account group', type: 'nominal', title: 'Area' },
        {
          field: 'formattedAmountMillion',
          type: 'ordinal',
          title: 'Spending (USD in millions)',
        },
        { field: 'date', type: 'temporal', title: 'Year', format: '%Y' }
      ],
    },
  }}
/>

By 2017, these budget items returned to their pre-2016 levels, which may suggest that the town had successfully
adapted to the new circumstances, perhaps by implementing more cost-effective strategies.

While this exploration offers a compelling perspective, it's important to note that these are theories derived
from the available budget data and the concurrent global events of the time. It underscores how global crises,
like the refugee crisis, may potentially impact not just national budgets, but also the fiscal management of
smaller towns like Moers.
