Add Moers Anomaly story
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Michael Polidori
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examples/openspending/content/stories/moers-anomaly-2016.mdx
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examples/openspending/content/stories/moers-anomaly-2016.mdx
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---
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title: An Exploration of Moers' 2016 Budget Anomaly
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date: 06/13/2023
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---
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_Note: The currency in this post has been converted to USD using an average exchange rate of 1 EUR = 1.20 USD.
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Additionally, the text values for account groups have been loosely translated to English. You can find the
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original dataset here: [Moers budget dataset](https://www.openspending.org/@os-data/moers-all)_
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In the fiscal landscape of Moers, Germany, 2016 stands out as an anomaly. An examination of the budget allocations
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for this particular year shows a significant surge in spending across various areas. After this anomalous
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spike, spending patterns then seemed to resume their previous trajectory of a slow, steady climb in the
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following years. While it's tempting to dismiss this as an irregularity, it's worth exploring the potential
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underlying causes of this fiscal fluctuation.
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<VegaLite
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spec={{
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$schema: 'https://vega.github.io/schema/vega-lite/v5.json',
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title: 'Spending by Account Group',
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description: 'Spending by Account Group',
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data: {
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url: 'https://gist.githubusercontent.com/mpolidori/6148c2a6a669194d5955a30f4605f756/raw/8df7fda117dce5d62b94738b65cbe7153a4c2378/moers-sums.csv',
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},
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transform: [
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{
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calculate: "format(datum.amount / 1e6 * 1.20, '$,.1f') + 'M'",
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as: 'formattedAmountMillion',
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},
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{ calculate: 'datum.amount / 1e9 * 1.20', as: 'amountBillion' },
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],
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mark: 'bar',
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height: 400,
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width: 350,
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encoding: {
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x: {
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field: 'date',
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type: 'temporal',
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timeUnit: 'utcyear',
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title: 'Year',
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},
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y: {
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field: 'amount',
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type: 'quantitative',
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title: 'Spending (USD in millions)',
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axis: {
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format: '~s',
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labelExpr: "format(datum.value / 1e6 * 1.20, '$,.0f') + 'M'",
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},
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},
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color: {
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field: 'account group',
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type: 'nominal',
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title: 'Account Group',
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scale: {
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domain: [
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'Activated Own Work',
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'Balance Expenses',
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'Care Expenses',
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'Donations And General Levies',
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'Expenses For Material And Services',
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'Extraordinary Expenses',
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'Extraordinary Income',
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'Other Ordinary Expenses',
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'Other Ordinary Income',
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'Other Transfer Income',
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'Personnel Expenses',
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'Private Law Performance Fees',
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'Public-Service Performance Fees',
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'Taxes And Similar Charges',
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'Transfer Expenses',
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],
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range: [
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'#EF5350',
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'#F06292',
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'#BA68C8',
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'#9575CD',
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'#7986CB',
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'#64B5F6',
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'#4FC3F7',
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'#4DD0E1',
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'#4DB6AC',
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'#81C784',
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'#AED581',
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'#DCE775',
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'#FFF176',
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'#FFD54F',
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'#FFB74D',
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],
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},
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},
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tooltip: [
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{ field: 'account group', type: 'nominal', title: 'Account Group' },
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{
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field: 'formattedAmountMillion',
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type: 'ordinal',
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title: 'Spending (USD)',
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},
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{ field: 'date', type: 'temporal', title: 'Year', format: '%Y' }
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],
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},
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}}
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/>
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## Why?
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One possible explanation could be the global refugee crisis that was unfolding around this time, particularly
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in Germany. While we can't assert this connection definitively due to the lack of specific data, it's an angle
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worth examining to better understand the budget anomaly of 2016.
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For instance, the "Donations and General Levies" account group saw a distinct increase in 2016. This could be
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reflective of Moers' attempts to provide immediate support to incoming refugees, although we can only speculate
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at this point.
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<VegaLite
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spec={{
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$schema: 'https://vega.github.io/schema/vega-lite/v5.json',
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title: 'Donations and General Levies',
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description: 'Donations and General Levies',
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data: {
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url: 'https://gist.githubusercontent.com/mpolidori/6148c2a6a669194d5955a30f4605f756/raw/8df7fda117dce5d62b94738b65cbe7153a4c2378/moers-sums.csv',
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},
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transform: [
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{ filter: "datum['account group']==='Donations And General Levies'" },
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{
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calculate: "format(datum.amount / 1e6 * 1.20, '$,.1f') + 'M'",
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as: 'formattedAmountMillion',
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},
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],
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mark: {
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type: 'area',
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line: true,
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point: true,
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},
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width: 400,
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height: 400,
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encoding: {
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x: {
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field: 'date',
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type: 'temporal',
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timeUnit: 'utcyear',
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title: 'Year',
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},
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y: {
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field: 'amount',
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type: 'quantitative',
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title: 'Spending (USD in millions)',
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axis: {
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format: '~s',
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labelExpr: "format(datum.value / 1e6 * 1.20, '$,.0f') + 'M'",
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},
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},
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color: {
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title: 'Account Group',
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field: 'account group',
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scale: {
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domain: ['Donations And General Levies'],
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range: ['#9575CD'],
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},
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},
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tooltip: [
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{ field: 'account group', type: 'nominal', title: 'Area' },
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{
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field: 'formattedAmountMillion',
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type: 'ordinal',
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title: 'Spending (USD in millions)',
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},
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{ field: 'date', type: 'temporal', title: 'Year', format: '%Y' }
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],
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},
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}}
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/>
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Similarly, "Expenses for Material and Services" also experienced an upswing. This could suggest
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that the town was working to establish necessary infrastructure and resources for the newcomers. It's plausible
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that procurement of essential supplies and services to aid the refugees was a factor contributing to this budget
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increase.
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The rise in "Personnel Expenses" may suggest an expansion of the town's workforce during this period. Additional
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staffing in areas like interpretation, social work, healthcare, and administration would be necessary to handle
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the influx of refugees.
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The two account groups that experienced the most substantial raw monetary increases were "Taxes and Similar Charges"
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and "Transfer Expenses". Both these categories more than doubled in size during the year, a significant surge
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especially considering their already high baseline spending. This could be for a variety of reasons.
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For "Taxes and Similar Charges", the hike could indicate the town adjusting local taxation to meet the additional
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expenditures, or it could reflect an increase in income from other sources falling under this group. The influx
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of refugees and the resulting uptick in economic activity may have also led to a rise in the collection of certain
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local taxes or fees.
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Concurrently, the "Transfer Expenses" spike could be an indication of heightened social welfare payments, costs
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associated with refugee integration, and funds transferred to other entities managing the crisis. These financial
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escalations are a testament to the extensive and multifaceted financial impact the refugee crisis had on the town's
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budget.
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<VegaLite
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spec={{
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$schema: 'https://vega.github.io/schema/vega-lite/v5.json',
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title: 'Largest Spending by Account Group',
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description: 'Largest Spending by Account Group',
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data: {
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url: 'https://gist.githubusercontent.com/mpolidori/6148c2a6a669194d5955a30f4605f756/raw/8df7fda117dce5d62b94738b65cbe7153a4c2378/moers-sums.csv',
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},
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transform: [
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{
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filter: {
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field: 'account group',
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oneOf: [
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'Donations And General Levies',
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'Expenses For Material And Services',
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'Personnel Expenses',
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'Taxes And Similar Charges',
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'Transfer Expenses'
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]
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}
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},
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{
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calculate: "format(datum.amount / 1e6 * 1.20, '$,.1f') + 'M'",
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as: 'formattedAmountMillion',
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}
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],
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mark: {
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type: 'line',
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point: true,
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},
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width: 400,
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height: 400,
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encoding: {
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x: {
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field: 'date',
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type: 'temporal',
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timeUnit: 'utcyear',
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title: 'Year'
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},
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y: {
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field: 'amount',
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type: 'quantitative',
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title: 'Spending (USD in millions)',
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axis: {
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format: '~s',
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labelExpr: "format(datum.value / 1e6 * 1.20, '$,.0f') + 'M'",
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}
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},
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color: {
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field: 'account group',
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type: 'nominal',
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title: 'Account Group',
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scale: {
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domain: [
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'Donations And General Levies',
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'Expenses For Material And Services',
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'Personnel Expenses',
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'Taxes And Similar Charges',
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'Transfer Expenses'
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],
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range: [
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'#9575CD',
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'#7986CB',
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'#AED581',
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'#FFD54F',
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'#FFB74D'
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],
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},
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},
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tooltip: [
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{ field: 'account group', type: 'nominal', title: 'Area' },
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{
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field: 'formattedAmountMillion',
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type: 'ordinal',
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title: 'Spending (USD in millions)',
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},
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{ field: 'date', type: 'temporal', title: 'Year', format: '%Y' }
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],
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},
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}}
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/>
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By 2017, these budget items returned to their pre-2016 levels, which may suggest that the town had successfully
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adapted to the new circumstances, perhaps by implementing more cost-effective strategies.
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While this exploration offers a compelling perspective, it's important to note that these are theories derived
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from the available budget data and the concurrent global events of the time. It underscores how global crises,
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like the refugee crisis, may potentially impact not just national budgets, but also the fiscal management of
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smaller towns like Moers.
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